Pity Calculator

Three banners drive three different formulas since each has its own cap and rates: the Character Event Warp (limited), the Light Cone Event Warp, and the Stellar Warp (standard) — home to permanent characters and cones. Current pity is how many pulls in a row since your last 5-star, resetting to 0 each time you hit one. The guarantee switch only applies to the Character and Light Cone channels: flip it on if your last 5-star was NOT the featured unit (you lost the 50/50 or 75/25), because your next 5-star there is then guaranteed to be the one you want.

Read the output in order: the chance of the exact target within budget, the chance of any 5-star, the average pulls needed, and the worst-case safety net. The distribution chart shows cumulative probability climbing pull by pull — steepening around the soft pity zone and going nearly vertical at the hard cap. The odds-by-milestone table lets you compare budget scenarios at a glance.

Character channel: base 5-star rate around 0.6% per pull, hard cap at 90 pulls, and when a 5-star lands there's a 50% chance it's the featured unit (50/50). Light Cone channel: base rate around 0.8% per pull — higher than Character but still low compared to many other gacha games — hard cap at 80 pulls, and when a 5-star lands there's a 75% chance it's the featured cone (75/25 instead of 50/50). That's the key difference: Light Cone has both a lower cap and a better first-try odds, making it noticeably friendlier than the Character channel.

The Stellar Warp channel — home to permanent characters and cones with no time limit — shares the same 90-pull hard cap as the Character channel, but has NO 50/50, no featured unit, and no guarantee mechanic at all: every 5-star there is fully random within the standard pool. That's why the tool hides the guarantee switch on this banner — not an oversight, it's simply how this banner actually works.

On the Character channel, landing a 5-star gives a 50% chance it's the featured unit and 50% a random standard character. Lose that coin flip and the guarantee kicks in: your next 5-star on that channel is then 100% guaranteed to be the featured one. The worst case to secure a limited character is 90 pulls (loss) plus 90 more (guaranteed win) — 180 pulls, or 28,800 Stellar Jade.

The Light Cone channel is friendlier: the featured cone lands at 75% right on the first 5-star (75/25 instead of 50/50), so while the worst case is still 80 plus 80 for 160 pulls, the odds of ever needing that full stretch are far lower since the first-try win rate is already high. The tool automatically switches to the correct guarantee math when you change channels.

If the 5-star rate stayed flat from pull 1 to the hard cap, most players would rarely feel close to it since cumulative odds would already be decent early on. In practice the game uses a rising curve called "soft pity": on the Character channel, starting around pull 74 the per-pull 5-star rate jumps in steps instead of staying at the base rate, climbing faster the closer you get to 90 until it hits a guaranteed 100%. That's why most players land their 5-star somewhere around pulls 75-89, rarely needing pull 90 itself.

The exact onset isn't officially published. On the Character channel, community measurements converge around pull 74, matching multiple independent sources. On the Light Cone channel, the soft pity onset is estimated around pull 65 — a figure this tool previously did not surface clearly, now added so you can see why cones tend to land earlier relative to their cap than characters do. Both are large-sample community statistics, not official documentation, so the tool flags them as estimates rather than absolute claims.

To know how much to save before a new banner, work backward from the worst case: multiply the pulls needed (up to 180 for Character at 0 pity with no guarantee, or 160 for Light Cone) by 160 Stellar Jade per pull. But most players don't need the full worst-case amount — plug in your actual pity and guarantee status, check the probability at a few budget milestones (say 30, 60, 90 pulls), and decide how much risk you're comfortable carrying.

Three practical tips: if you already hold the guarantee (you lost the 50/50 or 75/25 last time), the upcoming banner is nearly a sure thing at the cap — prioritize saving for that one first. If the tool already shows 80-90%+ at your current budget, saving further adds very little for a lot more farming. And if you're torn between a character or a cone in the same cycle, remember Light Cone has the lower hard cap (160 vs 180), making it the safer pick when your budget is tight.

Hand-counting with "on average 1 in 0.6% pulls gets a 5-star" only holds if the rate never changes — but since soft pity spikes the rate after pull 74, the real average pull count sits well below the naive 1/0.6% ≈ 167 estimate. That's why sources report fairly different averages: some compute the full expectation from 0 pity, including the chance of losing then winning via guarantee, landing around 62 pulls; others only average outcomes near the soft/hard pity zone, landing around 75-80 pulls. The gap comes from how each source defines "average," not a calculation error — neither is wrong, they're just answering slightly different questions.

This tool uses a closed-form probability model: it computes the entire soft-pity curve plus guarantee state exactly with math, rather than running tens of thousands of trials and averaging like some Monte-Carlo simulators do. That gives stable results — feed it the same numbers and it returns the exact same probability every time.